Germany Climate Resilience Policy Indicator

• Germany’s average annual temperature has risen more quickly than the world average, and its number of hot days has also increased. Sustainment of these trends is projected, and higher energy demand for cooling is expected.
• Overall annual mean precipitation has increased, but seasonal differences are considerable. The increasing frequency of heavy precipitation in the winter and droughts in the summer threaten energy supply security.
• Germany has a well-established cycle for climate change adaptation, consisting of vulnerability assessments, action plans, and reports for tracking, monitoring and evaluating progress. Although climate change adaptation and energy system resilience are key areas in the cycle, they rarely figure in national energy plans.

Temperature

Germany’s average annual temperature increases have outpaced the world average. According to the German Environment Agency, the country’s average air temperature rose 1.5°C between 1881 and 2018 – with a 0.3°C rise during 2013-2018 alone. In contrast, global average warming for this period is estimated at around 1.1°C. From 2000 to 2020, the temperature rise was also higher than in most other countries, and is linked with an increase in the number of hot days (temperature above 30°C). Temperatures have risen across Germany, with slightly higher warming rates in the western and southern parts of the country.

The temperature in Germany is expected to keep rising through the 21st century. By 2071-2100, the average temperature in Germany could be 0.9-1.6 °C to 3.1-4.7 °C1 higher than during the 1971-2000 period. Regarding seasonal differences, my bottom is expected to warm it faster than spring with temperature rises of 4.4-5.6°C and 2.4-3.5°C respectively by the end of the century. Regarding extremes, the number of hot days (maximum temperature above 30 °C) and tropical nights (Minimum temperature below 20°C) are expected to increase significantly throughout the century. The number of hot days could double to triple by mid-century and be multiplied by three to six by the end of century from 4.6 days per year in the reference period2. Places 1000 metres above sea level and higher as well as urban areas are expected to experience a faster increase in hot days than the rest of the country. On the other hand, the average number of ice days (maximum daytime temperature below 0°C) is expected to decrease for all scenarios and for all time periods.

The changes in temperature have resulted in fewer heating degree days (HDDs) and more cooling degree days (CDDs), which will likely to lead to a decrease in winter heating demand and an increase in summer energy demand for cooling. Regarding electricity resilience, rising summer consumption could put additional seasonal pressure on peak electricity demand, especially during hot weather. The increase in temperature is also projected to reduce the demand for heat by up to 30% by the end of the century although occasional cold winters provoked by shifts in the polar jet stream could still induce high heating demand.

Precipitation

Germany’s annual mean precipitation has increased 8.7% since 1881, although differences depending on location and season are considerable. For instance, while northwestern Germany has had notably higher precipitation, Saxony has become slightly drier. Regarding seasonal differences, winters have become wetter while summer rainfall has remained largely unchanged. Distinct challenges are posed by the greater frequency of heavy precipitation in the winter and reduced stream flows in the summer (due to greater evaporation as the climate becomes warmer). In the past 65 years, the winter frequency of heavy precipitation has increased by approximately 25%, while streamflow levels have dropped significantly since the 1960s.

Climate projections show that the annual average precipitation would remain stable or increased slightly by both mid-century (-1 to +10%) and end century (-1 to +15%) in a high emission scenario3. In winter, precipitation is expected to increase across the country while summer precipitation is unlikely to show any significant trends by the end of the century. In terms of extreme, the number of heavy precipitation days (over 20mm per day) is expected to increase for all scenarios and for all time periods from 4.4 days per year in 1971-2000 to 5.3-7.1 days per year in 2071-21004.

These strong seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation, combined with rising temperatures and its interactions with evaporation and snowmelt could make dry days more common by the end of the century and may pose a risk to Germany’s energy supply. In 2003, 2006 and 2018, electricity generation by nuclear and thermal power plants was disrupted by summer droughts. For several years already, German’s energy security has been threatened by lower coolant water availability and by restrictions on waterway transportation of energy supplies (oil, coal and other commodities), especially on the Rhine. In fact, in October 2018 the Rhine’s water level fell to a record low (1.7 feet compared with the 4.8‑feet five-year average), disrupting shipments of petroleum products by barge and causing regional fuel supply disruptions. Conversely, heavy snowfalls in the winter of 2020 disrupted electricity supplies and left 110 000 residents without power.

Germany’s well-established system for climate change adaptation consists of vulnerability assessments, action plans, and reports for tracking, monitoring and evaluating progress. Based on the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS) adopted in 2008, the country has faithfully updated its Adaptation Action Plans (APAs) every five years and issued progress reports since adoption of the Adaptation Action Plan I (APA I).

The progress reports summarise current knowledge, activities and opportunities for action, as well as concrete steps for further DAS development and implementation. They also detail relevant federal activities since adoption of the DAS and the APA I. The Monitoring Report, which provides a compact overview of alterations resulting from climate change (with updates every four years), the 2015 Vulnerability Assessment before and the 2021 Federal Climate Impact and Risk Assessment now, which identify vulnerabilities through a network of federal authorities and institutions with support from a scientific consortium, form the foundation of the progress reports.

The latest APA (APA III) is based on the October 2020 Second Progress Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, which states that three-quarters of the APA II’s 147 measures have already been implemented or are in the process of being implemented.

Climate change adaptation and energy system resilience have been key areas in the APAs. In the APA I, energy was one of the 15 sectors analysed, while in the APA II and APA III, it was included in one of the six clusters (“infrastructure”, which details actions for energy, transport and construction). The APA III proposes several specific measures, although most actions in the infrastructure cluster focus on transport. Activities include examining how climate change affects the electricity generation of thermal power plants and industrial processes, and integrating adaptation and resilience into the construction and funding of buildings.

Other documents in addition to the APAs have also addressed energy sector climate resilience. For instance, the Federal Climate Impact and Risk Assessment‘s section on the energy industry highlights potential changes in energy demand for heating and cooling, cooling water availability for thermal power plants, and damage to power stations and production facilities by extreme weather events.

To encourage various entities and stakeholders to implement adaptation measures, Germany’s federal government established the German Climate Preparedness Portal (KLiVO) in 2018. KLiVO is the one governmental meta-information platform that guides users to relevant and verified climate services. Users can self-define their individual needs according to step in the adaptation cycle, or by sector, region, climate hazard or user group. This portal is expected to foster wider engagement in climate change adaptation efforts.

Energy sector climate resilience is less discussed in national energy plans than climate plans. Although Germany’s integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021-2030 does address resilience to energy supply crises, it does not specify climate-driven energy supply disruptions. The Energy Industry Act and the Federal Government’s Energy Concept do not include actions to fortify climate resilience in this sector.